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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 3

Los Angeles Rams 17 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 8-L.Havrisik 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +3.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.47 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 3, worth +0.40 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP