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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 2

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(2:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-P.Nacua for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.24 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 2, worth +0.52 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model