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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 39

New Orleans Saints 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(13:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at LA 48 for -9 yards (91-K.Turner).

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.47 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model