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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 34

New York Jets 17 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:08) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 83-T.Conklin. 83-T.Conklin up the middle to WAS 34 for no gain (20-J.Martin). WAS-94-D.Payne was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.93 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.33 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model