4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 46

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(:05) 5-T.Way punts 40 yards to NYJ 6, Center-58-T.Addington, downed by WAS-2-D.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.84 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 13, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP