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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 9

New York Jets 17 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 9-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 9, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model