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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 7

New York Jets 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 9-G.Zuerlein 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.30 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 7, worth +0.29 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.37 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model