Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 58

New York Jets 27 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(11:55) 5-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to WAS 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 10 for -2 yards (19-I.Charles). NYJ-34-J.Hardee was injured during the play. PENALTY on WAS-2-D.Brown, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at WAS 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.83 EP
62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 58, worth -3.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model