Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 60

New York Jets 27 – Washington Commanders 14

(14:23) 5-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to WAS 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 83-J.Crowder to WAS 23 for 14 yards (88-K.Yeboah).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.74 EP
70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model