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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 64

New York Jets 27 – Washington Commanders 21

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 5-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to WAS 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 83-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.33 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 22, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model