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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 66

New York Jets 27 – Washington Commanders 28

What Actually Happened

(3:56) (No Huddle) 14-T.Siemian up the middle to NYJ 36 for 2 yards (96-J.Smith-Williams).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 24, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model