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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 20 at the 63

New York Jets 27 – Washington Commanders 28

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 5-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to WAS 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 83-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 25 for 5 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.30 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 63, worth -2.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model