Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 89

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(10:28) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to WAS 47, Center-58-T.Addington, downed by WAS-34-C.Holmes. PENALTY on WAS-34-C.Holmes, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 47.

The Three Options

GO -3.17 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.29 EP
62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 89, worth -5.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model