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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 45

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(7:36) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to NYJ 11, Center-58-T.Addington, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.54 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.62 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model