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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 72

Detroit Lions 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(10:01) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 42-J.Reeves-Maybin. 42-J.Reeves-Maybin pass deep right to 30-K.Dorsey to DAL 41 for 31 yards (18-J.Tolbert).

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.45 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 72, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 30, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model