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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 4

Detroit Lions 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(5:45) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 87-S.LaPorta.

The Three Options

GO +2.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.92 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 4, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model