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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 64

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to DET 15, Center-44-T.Sieg. 11-K.Raymond to DET 40 for 25 yards (99-C.Golston).

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.47 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 64, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 22, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model