Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 55

Detroit Lions 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

(:44) 3-J.Fox punts 46 yards to DAL 9, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.85 EP
53% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 55, worth -2.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model