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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 12

Detroit Lions 10 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(12:21) 17-M.Badgley 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-J.McQuaide, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.87 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model