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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 50

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 5-B.Anger punts 39 yards to DET 11, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.46 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 50, worth -1.81 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model