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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 47

Detroit Lions 3 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 3-J.Fox punts 36 yards to DAL 11, Center-43-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.77 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model