Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 74

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

(11:28) 8-R.Sanchez punts 50 yards to LV 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.19 EP
67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 74, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model