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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 40

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(3:42) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to LV 20 for 20 yards (39-N.Hobbs).

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.44 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 40, worth -1.95 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model