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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 15

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(7:37) 7-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.03 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP