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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 62

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(6:54) (Shotgun) 4-A.O'Connell pass deep right to 11-T.Tucker to IND 46 for 16 yards (29-J.Brents).

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.49 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 62, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EP