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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 19 at the 84

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to LV 33, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 3-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 84, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 42, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model