Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 82

New England Patriots 7 – Buffalo Bills 13

(1:01) 17-B.Baringer punts 47 yards to BUF 35, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -3.31 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 82, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model