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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 46

Buffalo Bills 13 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(:13) 8-S.Martin punts 41 yards to NE 5, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.47 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model