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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 71

Buffalo Bills 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(13:14) 8-S.Martin punts 53 yards to NE 18, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 29, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model