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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 39

New England Patriots 14 – Buffalo Bills 27

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 17-B.Baringer punts 27 yards to BUF 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.30 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 48, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model