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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 63

Buffalo Bills 27 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 8-S.Martin punts 47 yards to NE 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 27-M.Bryant.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.02 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 63, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP