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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 62

Buffalo Bills 3 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(8:51) 8-S.Martin punts 48 yards to NE 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 27-M.Bryant ran ob at NE 16 for 2 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.02 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model