Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 55

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 20

(1:34) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to NO 8, Center-97-Z.Triner. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 19 for 11 yards (26-K.Merriweather).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.98 EP
64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -2.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model