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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 52

New Orleans Saints 20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 39-L.Hedley punts 43 yards to TB 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.92 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model