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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 85

New Orleans Saints 23 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 39-L.Hedley punts 51 yards to TB 34, Center-49-Z.Wood. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 46 for 12 yards (46-A.Prentice; 52-D.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.52 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model