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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 5-J.Camarda punts 51 yards to NO 16, Center-97-Z.Triner. 22-R.Shaheed to NO 32 for 16 yards (52-K.Britt; 19-D.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 67, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 25, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP