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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 59

New Orleans Saints 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 39-L.Hedley punts 48 yards to TB 11, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.93 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP