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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 66

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(:45) 4-M.Dickson punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.85 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model