4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 24

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(10:51) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.69 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.53 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model