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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 41

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(11:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass incomplete deep left to 14-G.Pickens (27-T.Woolen).

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.30 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 41, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.16 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model