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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 60

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 6-P.Harvin punts 46 yards to SEA 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 31-D.Dallas.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.06 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 60, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 19, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP