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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 20

Houston Texans 17 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:21) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.04 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 20, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model