4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 69

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 13-T.Zentner punts 57 yards to HOU 12, Center-46-M.Cox. 25-D.King to HOU 31 for 19 yards (41-O.Reese). TEN-14-C.Dowell was injured during the play. He is Out.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.42 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model