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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 35

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(:01) 6-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-13-T.Zentner.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +2.43 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 35, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -0.19 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model