4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 9

Houston Texans 20 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 15-K.Fairbairn 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +2.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.25 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 9, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model