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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 44

Tennessee Titans 3 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(6:22) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 16-T.Burks ran ob at HOU 37 for 7 yards (25-D.King).

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.04 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.46 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model