4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 3

Tennessee Titans 3 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(1:01) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 85-C.Okonkwo (48-C.Harris).

The Three Options

GO +2.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 3, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model