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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 58

Tennessee Titans 3 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(7:40) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at TEN 35 for -7 yards (95-D.Barnett).

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.04 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 58, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model