Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 74

Tennessee Titans 3 – Houston Texans 26

(4:05) 13-T.Zentner punts 64 yards to HOU 10, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-44-M.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 74, worth -3.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model