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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 48

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 13-T.Zentner punts 42 yards to HOU 6, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.41 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -3.05 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model